Politics / Elections
LA-02 House winner? — Will Republican win the House race for LA-02? — Republican party
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
2.6%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'LA-02 House Election Winner' ↔ 'LA-02 House winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 0.60).
Kalshi ticker
KXHOUSERACE-LA02-26-R
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0xd6b91637657a2e5b…
Resolves 11/3/2026
Pro
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