Politics / Elections
AZ-03 House winner? — Will Republican win the House race for AZ-03? — Republican party
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
2.1%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'AZ-03 House Election Winner' ↔ 'AZ-03 House winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 0.60).
Kalshi ticker
KXHOUSERACE-AZ03-26-R
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0xf4e9f4bda9fe9877…
Resolves 11/3/2026
Pro
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