Politics / Elections

CT-04 House winner? — Will Republican win the House race for CT-04? — Republican party

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

4.5%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

4¢

bid 3¢ · ask 6¢

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

4¢

bid 3¢ · ask 6¢

24h vol $1,209

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'CT-04 House Election Winner' ↔ 'CT-04 House winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 0.60).

Kalshi ticker

KXHOUSERACE-CT04-26-R

Resolves 11/3/2027

Polymarket condition

0x38b503e586f4eeaa…

Resolves 11/3/2026

Pro

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