Politics / Elections

WA-10 House winner? — Will Republican win the House race for WA-10? — Republican party

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

5.0%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range3.1pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

3¢

bid 2¢ · ask 5¢

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

7¢

bid 6¢ · ask 7¢

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'WA-10 House Election Winner' ↔ 'WA-10 House winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 0.60).

Kalshi ticker

KXHOUSERACE-WA10-26-R

Resolves 11/3/2027

Polymarket condition

0x18e8dfbeb5b211ef…

Resolves 11/3/2026

Pro

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