Politics / Elections

MA-09 House winner? — Will Republican win the House race for MA-09? — Republican party

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

3.8%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range3.5pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

2¢

bid 1¢ · ask 4¢

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

6¢

bid 5¢ · ask 6¢

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'MA-09 House Election Winner' ↔ 'MA-09 House winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 0.60).

Kalshi ticker

KXHOUSERACE-MA09-26-R

Resolves 11/3/2027

Polymarket condition

0x2b8728abb1aa4ee0…

Resolves 11/3/2026

Pro

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