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Tour de France: Polka Dot Jersey Winner — Will Richard Carapaz win the polka dot jersey at the 2026 Tour de France?

78.0%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range2.0pp dislocation
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket
Best price
Kalshi
77¢
bid 74¢ · ask 79¢
24h vol $2,896
Trade on Kalshi →
Polymarket
79¢
bid 78¢ · ask 79¢
24h vol $8,013
Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Tour De France 2026: Polka Dot Jersey' ↔ 'Tour de France: Polka Dot Jersey Winner' (score 0.88, outcome match 0.50).

Kalshi ticker
KXCYCLINGJERSEY-26TDFRPOLKADOT-RCAR
Resolves 8/9/2026
Polymarket condition
0x6d85be585dd4409a…
Resolves 8/9/2026
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