Geopolitics

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place — Will Romeu Zema finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

2.7%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range7.8pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

11¢

bid 7¢ · ask 14¢

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Best price

Polymarket

3¢

bid 3¢ · ask 3¢

24h vol $172

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Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place' ↔ 'Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place' (score 0.78, outcome match 0.83).

Kalshi ticker

KXBRPRESIDENT2-BRPRES26-2-RZEM

Resolves 10/4/2027

Polymarket condition

0xa68adbb0fedef76c…

Resolves 10/4/2026

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