Geopolitics
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place — Will Ronaldo Caiado finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
0.8%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place' ↔ 'Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place' (score 0.78, outcome match 0.83).
Kalshi ticker
KXBRPRESIDENT2-BRPRES26-2-RCAI
Resolves 10/4/2027
Polymarket condition
0x1991f63d7497ae66…
Resolves 10/4/2026
Pro
Order book depth, real-time dislocation alerts, correlated markets, and cross-venue portfolio margin — coming soon.