Geopolitics

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place — Will Ronaldo Caiado finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

2.0%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range2.0pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

3¢

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Polymarket

1¢

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Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place' ↔ 'Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place' (score 0.78, outcome match 0.83).

Kalshi ticker

KXBRPRESIDENT2-BRPRES26-2-RCAI

Resolves 10/4/2027

Polymarket condition

0x1991f63d7497ae66…

Resolves 10/4/2026

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