Geopolitics

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place — Will Ronaldo Caiado finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

14.0%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

15¢

bid 12¢ · ask 17¢

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Best price

Polymarket

14¢

bid 10¢ · ask 18¢

24h vol $240

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Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place' ↔ 'Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place' (score 0.78, outcome match 0.83).

Kalshi ticker

KXBRPRESIDENT3-BRPRES26-3-RCAI

Resolves 10/4/2027

Polymarket condition

0x3dbbbe0f8e69b1ae…

Resolves 10/4/2026

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