Geopolitics

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place — Will Ronaldo Caiado finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

16.0%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

17¢

bid 14¢ · ask 20¢

Trade on Kalshi →

Best price

Polymarket

16¢

bid 15¢ · ask 17¢

24h vol $6

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place' ↔ 'Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place' (score 0.78, outcome match 0.83).

Kalshi ticker

KXBRPRESIDENT3-BRPRES26-3-RCAI

Resolves 10/4/2027

Polymarket condition

0x3dbbbe0f8e69b1ae…

Resolves 10/4/2026

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