Politics

Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? — Will Russell Vought leaves OMB Director in before 2027?

17.5%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range12.0pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

18¢

bid 17¢ · ask 18¢

24h vol $277

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

30¢

bid 8¢ · ask 51¢

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?' ↔ 'Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?' (score 0.71, outcome match 0.40).

Kalshi ticker

KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-RVOU

Resolves 1/1/2027

Polymarket condition

0xa2df577205d2ce04…

Resolves 12/31/2026

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