Entertainment

Emmy winner: Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie — Will Sally Field win Movie/Limited Actress at the Emmy Awards?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 365 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

20.7%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range6.3pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

16¢

bid 12¢ · ask 19¢

24h vol $199

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

22¢

bid 22¢ · ask 22¢

24h vol $897

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie' ↔ 'Emmy winner: Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie' (score 0.54, outcome match 0.43).

Kalshi ticker

KXEMMYLIMITEDACTR-26SEP14-SAL

Resolves 9/14/2027

Polymarket condition

0x0e19af82e3b8971b…

Resolves 9/14/2026

Pro

Order book depth, real-time dislocation alerts, correlated markets, and cross-venue portfolio margin — coming soon.