Politics / Elections
CA-37 House winner? — Who will win the 2026 CA-37 House election? — Samantha Mota
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 365 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
4.6%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range2.6pp dislocation
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'CA-37 House Election Winner (Individual)' ↔ 'CA-37 House winner?' (score 0.57, outcome match 0.60).
Kalshi ticker
KXCAELECTION-2637-SMOT
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0x4bdd98865a8f095e…
Resolves 11/3/2026
Pro
Order book depth, real-time dislocation alerts, correlated markets, and cross-venue portfolio margin — coming soon.