Politics / Elections
CA-11 House winner? — Who will win the CA-11 House election? — Scott Wiener
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 365 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
68.2%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range3.0pp dislocation
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'CA-11 House Election Winner (Individual)' ↔ 'CA-11 House winner? ' (score 0.57, outcome match 0.75).
Kalshi ticker
KXCA11PERSON-26-SWIE
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0x3dfc627db782f138…
Resolves 11/3/2026
Pro
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