Politics / Elections
Vancouver mayoral election winner? — Will Sean Orr win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
2.5%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner' ↔ 'Vancouver mayoral election winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 1.00).
Kalshi ticker
KXVANCOUVERMAYOR-26OCT17-SORR
Resolves 10/17/2027
Polymarket condition
0x2dd43d4fa975429d…
Resolves 10/17/2026
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