Sports
NBA — Pro Basketball Defensive Player of the Year Winner — Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win Defensive Player of the Year?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
1.8%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range2.5pp dislocation
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Kalshi Polymarket
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Mapping notes
Event pair: 'NBA: 2026-27 Defensive Player of the Year' ↔ 'Pro Basketball Defensive Player of the Year Winner' (score 0.75, outcome match 1.00, llm=same).
Kalshi ticker
KXNBADPOY-27-SGILGEOUSALEXANDER2
Resolves 6/30/2028
Polymarket condition
0x7613de4aea1beddf…
Resolves 7/1/2027
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