Sports

Pro Baseball: 40+ Home Run Season — Will Shohei Ohtani record 40+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?

14.4%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range11.5pp dislocation
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
Best price
Kalshi
12¢
bid · ask 23¢
24h vol $157
Trade on Kalshi
Polymarket
23¢
bid 21¢ · ask 25¢
24h vol $52
Trade on Polymarket

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs' ↔ 'Pro Baseball: 40+ Home Run Season' (score 0.50, outcome match 0.83, llm=uncertain).

Kalshi ticker
KXMLBSEASONHR-26C40-SOHTANI17
Resolves 10/3/2026
Polymarket condition
0xddf5b4283f0d39c2
Resolves 10/11/2026
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