Politics / Elections

Estonia parliamentary election winner? — Will Social Democrats win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 365 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

6.0%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history

Best price

Kalshi

5¢

bid 1¢ · ask 8¢

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

6¢

bid 2¢ · ask 10¢

24h vol $286

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Estonia Parliamentary Election Winner' ↔ 'Estonia parliamentary election winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 0.44, llm=uncertain).

Kalshi ticker

KXESTONIAPARLI-27MAR07-SDE

Resolves 3/6/2028

Polymarket condition

0xef72585478b6b60d…

Resolves 3/7/2027

Pro

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