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Berlin state election winner? — Will SPD win the 2026 Berlin state election?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

4.5%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

6¢

bid 2¢ · ask 9¢

Trade on Kalshi →

Best price

Polymarket

5¢

bid 4¢ · ask 5¢

24h vol $1,878

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Berlin State Election Winner' ↔ 'Berlin state election winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 0.50).

Kalshi ticker

KXBERLINSTATE-26SEP20-SPD

Resolves 9/20/2027

Polymarket condition

0x4d5c17cb767b19eb…

Resolves 9/20/2026

Pro

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