Politics / Elections
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election winner? — Will SPD win the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
14.3%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner' ↔ 'Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election winner?' (score 0.57, outcome match 0.50).
Kalshi ticker
KXMECKLENBURGVORPOMMERN-26SEP20-SPD
Resolves 9/20/2027
Polymarket condition
0x7742a04b33fb5a5b…
Resolves 9/20/2026
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