Politics / Elections
Maine Senate winner? — Will Republicans win the Senate race in Maine? — Susan Collins
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 364 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
39.0%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range4.0pp dislocation
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history
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Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Maine Senate Election Winner' ↔ 'Maine Senate winner?' (score 0.60, outcome match 0.50, llm=uncertain).
Kalshi ticker
SENATEME-26-R
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0x2c00cb09722a0f05…
Resolves 11/4/2026
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