Politics / Elections
FL-16 Republican nominee? — Will Sydney Gruters be the Republican nominee for FL-16?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 442 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
95.2%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range2.4pp dislocation
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'FL-16 Republican Primary Winner' ↔ 'FL-16 Republican nominee?' (score 0.50, outcome match 1.00).
Kalshi ticker
KXFLPRIMARY-16R26-SGRU
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0x5c1af9960f5f7b5d…
Resolves 8/18/2026
Pro
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