Politics / Elections
CA-37 House winner? — Who will win the 2026 CA-37 House election? — Sydney Kamlager-Dove
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 365 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
94.1%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
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P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'CA-37 House Election Winner (Individual)' ↔ 'CA-37 House winner?' (score 0.57, outcome match 0.67).
Kalshi ticker
KXCAELECTION-2637-SKAM
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0xbe086caf51585f19…
Resolves 11/3/2026
Pro
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