Sports
NFL — Defensive Player of the Year Winner? — Will T.J. Watt win the Defensive Player of the Year?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 362 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
9.9%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
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P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history
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Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Pro Football: 2026-27 AP Defensive Player of the Year Winner' ↔ 'Defensive Player of the Year Winner?' (score 0.67, outcome match 0.50, llm=uncertain).
Kalshi ticker
KXNFLDPOTY-27-TWAT
Resolves 2/8/2028
Polymarket condition
0x554323f46317345e…
Resolves 2/11/2027
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