Sports
Will Tampa Bay win the 2026 Pro Baseball American League Championship?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 730 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
14.5%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'MLB: 2026 American League Champion' ↔ 'American League Champion' (score 0.80, outcome match 0.67).
Kalshi ticker
KXMLBAL-26-TB
Resolves 10/31/2028
Polymarket condition
0x538ad2df74cdacae…
Resolves 11/1/2026
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