Politics / Elections
São Paulo Governor winner? — Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
94.0%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
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P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'São Paulo Governor Election Winner' ↔ 'São Paulo Governor winner?' (score 0.67, outcome match 1.00).
Kalshi ticker
KXSPGOV-26OCT04-TFRE
Resolves 10/4/2027
Polymarket condition
0x7fad7ba14804a90a…
Resolves 10/4/2026
Pro
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