Geopolitics

Brazil presidential election: first round winner? — Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

0.4%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

1¢

bid 0¢ · ask 1¢

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Best price

Polymarket

0¢

bid 0¢ · ask 0¢

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Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place' ↔ 'Brazil presidential election: first round winner?' (score 0.56, outcome match 0.44).

Kalshi ticker

KXBRPRES1R-26OCT04-TFRE

Resolves 10/4/2027

Polymarket condition

0xc69eb6554a719e2f…

Resolves 10/4/2026

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