Politics / Elections
Kentucky Republican Governor nominee? — Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for Governor in Kentucky?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 364 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
11.5%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range7.0pp dislocation
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history
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Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Kentucky Governor Republican Primary Winner (2027)' ↔ 'Kentucky Republican Governor nominee?' (score 0.57, outcome match 1.00, llm=uncertain).
Kalshi ticker
KXGOVKYNOMR-27-TMAS
Resolves 5/17/2028
Polymarket condition
0x61043805ed4016fa…
Resolves 5/19/2027
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