Politics / Elections
Kelowna mayoral election winner? — Will Tom Dyas win the 2026 election for Mayor of Kelowna, British Columbia?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 364 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
33.5%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
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Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history
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Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Kelowna Mayoral Election' ↔ 'Kelowna mayoral election winner?' (score 0.60, outcome match 0.57, llm=uncertain).
Kalshi ticker
KXKELOWNAMAYOR-26OCT17-TDYA
Resolves 10/17/2027
Polymarket condition
0xcb3ffe95f8c37740…
Resolves 10/18/2026
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