Other

Next James Bond film: Actor cast as Q — Will Tom Holland perform as Q in the next James Bond film?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 1463 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

4.5%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range2.9pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

6¢

bid 2¢ · ask 10¢

Trade on Kalshi →

Best price

Polymarket

3¢

bid 0¢ · ask 6¢

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Next James Bond actor?' ↔ 'Next James Bond film: Actor cast as Q' (score 0.50, outcome match 0.50).

Kalshi ticker

KXPERFORMROLE007-Q-TOM

Resolves 1/1/2031

Polymarket condition

0xb1d360baed14a5d5…

Resolves 12/31/2026

Pro

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