Politics / Elections

MI-01 Democratic nominee? — Will Wayne Stiles be the Democratic nominee for MI-01?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 457 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

0.3%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

1¢

bid 0¢ · ask 1¢

24h vol $1,186

Trade on Kalshi →

Best price

Polymarket

0¢

bid — · ask 0¢

24h vol $1,186

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'MI-01 Democratic Primary Winner' ↔ 'MI-01 Democratic nominee?' (score 0.50, outcome match 1.00).

Kalshi ticker

KXMIPRIMARY-01D26-WSTI

Resolves 11/3/2027

Polymarket condition

0x2e9e575137d111ee…

Resolves 8/4/2026

Pro

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