Politics / Elections

MI-07 Democratic nominee? — Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 457 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

68.1%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

68¢

bid 66¢ · ask 70¢

24h vol $10,382

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

69¢

bid 66¢ · ask 72¢

24h vol $952

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'MI-07 Democratic Primary Winner' ↔ 'MI-07 Democratic nominee?' (score 0.50, outcome match 1.00).

Kalshi ticker

KXMIPRIMARY-07D26-WLAW

Resolves 11/3/2027

Polymarket condition

0xef7feb067decb270…

Resolves 8/4/2026

Pro

Order book depth, real-time dislocation alerts, correlated markets, and cross-venue portfolio margin — coming soon.