Politics / Elections
California Governor winner? — Will Democratic party win the governorship in California — Xavier Becerra
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
93.2%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
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P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'California Governor Election Winner' ↔ 'California Governor winner?' (score 0.60, outcome match 0.43).
Kalshi ticker
GOVPARTYCA-26-D
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0xa5d79e71e66c9fe1…
Resolves 11/3/2026
Pro
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