Politics / Elections
California Governor winner? — Will Democratic party win the governorship in California — Xavier Becerra
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 364 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
96.3%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history
Sign up free to see how prices have moved
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'California Governor Election Winner' ↔ 'California Governor winner?' (score 0.60, outcome match 0.43, llm=uncertain).
Kalshi ticker
GOVPARTYCA-26-D
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0xa5d79e71e66c9fe1…
Resolves 11/4/2026
Pro
Order book depth, real-time dislocation alerts, correlated markets, and cross-venue portfolio margin — coming soon.