Geopolitics
Israeli legislation election winner? — Will Yashar win the next Israeli legislative election?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
43.5%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range5.5pp dislocation
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Israeli Legislative Election Winner' ↔ 'Israeli legislation election winner?' (score 0.50, outcome match 0.40).
Kalshi ticker
KXISRAELKNESSET-26-YAS
Resolves 10/27/2027
Polymarket condition
0xd05da9807740aa0f…
Resolves 10/27/2026
Pro
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