Geopolitics

Will anyone win outright in the Brazil Presidential election? — Will anyone win outright in the first round of the 2026 Brazil Presidential election? — Yes

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

10.6%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range3.0pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

14¢

bid 11¢ · ask 16¢

24h vol $24

Trade on Kalshi →

Best price

Polymarket

11¢

bid 9¢ · ask 12¢

24h vol $1,059

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?' ↔ 'Will anyone win outright in the Brazil Presidential election?' (score 0.46, outcome match 0.64).

Kalshi ticker

KXBRAZILPRES1R-26OCT04

Resolves 10/4/2027

Polymarket condition

0x087469b4129c64c6…

Resolves 10/4/2026

Pro

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